SilasBarta comments on Stanislav Petrov Day - Less Wrong

35 Post author: gwern 26 September 2011 02:49PM

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Comment author: SilasBarta 26 September 2012 04:50:06PM *  1 point [-]

I reward someone who works their whole life on the best cause they find. I don't reward the guy who got lucky. I also won't reward someone for being ridiculously stupid

Okay, but what makes you think that it was an easy decision in the first place? It sounds like hindsight bias, to act like, because we now know that it was a false alarm, it must have been obvious without the later knowledge. Also, disobeying orders with so much at stake requires significant courage.

And could you elaborate the connection to superhero bias?

Who shows more heroism: someone who can annihilate bullets on contact giving some of his time to save 200 children, or someone who risks his life to save three prostitutes? Who shows more heroism: someone who risks their job to save the world, or someone who spends their entire career when they have an opportunity for a smaller amount of good?

Right, I understand. I read the article. I was not asking for a summary, but for you to explain how that applies to the specific argument I made. Are you saying that Petrov had superhero level powers, and so his act was relatively trivial? Again, how does my claim here fit the superhero bias template?

Comment author: DanielLC 27 September 2012 12:17:31AM 1 point [-]

It sounds like hindsight bias, to act like, because we now know that it was a false alarm, it must have been obvious without the later knowledge.

I guess his intelligence was involved somewhat. Also, I'm not sure why I thought that was all that relevant. I wouldn't reward someone for doing something that they convinced themselves would save the world. That doesn't really apply to Petrov.

Are you saying that Petrov had superhero level powers, and so his act was relatively trivial?

It was luck instead of powers, but basically. It wasn't that he's a superhero per se. It's just the same sort of extreme version of the halo effect. He was in a situation where he could do extreme good at extremely low cost, which makes him seem really heroic without actually being very heroic at all.

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