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Sewing-Machine comments on Edward Nelson claims proof of inconsistency in Peano Arithmetic - Less Wrong
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Interesting. Has your prior for "a contradiction will be found in the next hundred years" moved since Nelson's announcement?
My 5/40/5/10 numbers are (were) my estimation of the chance that a contradiction will be found in my lifetime. I'm far less certain that Nelson will have it sewed up in a few months, as he's claiming, but it's still quite likely he's made a big breakthrough.
Oh. I see. I thought your numbers were for Nelson's proof working. Hmm, given that, they seem more reasonable but still too high. I'd need to think more carefully about how likely I'd estimate things.