shokwave comments on Weak supporting evidence can undermine belief - Less Wrong

11 Post author: Lightwave 29 September 2011 10:11AM

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Comment author: shokwave 29 September 2011 11:10:47AM 7 points [-]

Sure, this makes perfect sense in a political environment - or in the ancestral environment, where I'm sure this kind of thing was very important to breeding (I could even take a shot at an evolutionary argument for this kind of instinct!). But that instinct is a net positive only in political situations; our current environment is significantly more factual-uncertainty based than political-uncertainty based. This may make the instinct a net negative.

Comment author: rwallace 30 September 2011 12:43:29AM 6 points [-]

Is that true? Surely even on a purely factual matter, it is still the case that he who makes a claim, will typically give his best evidence for the claim, so if the best evidence offered is weak, that still suggests stronger evidence doesn't exist.

Comment author: shokwave 30 September 2011 06:57:00AM 2 points [-]

that he who makes a claim, will typically give his best evidence for the claim, so if the best evidence offered is weak,

If a person is making a claim to you and knowing whether this claim is right or wrong is important, things are already pretty political! I was thinking of a scientific study providing weak evidence in favour of something, and this heuristic hurting our estimates.