Got it. Just so I understand what probability you're putting on uploading -- how long a biological lifespan are you expecting?
I have no decent estimate (and let me say that all of my projections ignore the probabilities of total societal collapse from various existential risks. That isn't to say I don't believe there are any such risks, just that I find them non-useful in projecting the timeline for various advances). Let me simply say that I agree with De Grey that the first millenarian is very likely alive today, though he or she is also very likely younger than I am.
I cannot conceive of a worldline resultant from the here-and-now that would not include the datapoint that withi...
In a comment on his skeptical post about Ray Kurzweil, he writes,
I wonder how people on Less Wrong would respond to that poll?
Edit: (Tried to) fix formatting and typo in title.