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JoshuaZ comments on Mike Darwin on Kurzweil, Techno-Optimism, and Delusional Stances on Cryonics - Less Wrong
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Not my point. I'm not arguing that there isn't mainstream attention. My point is that there has been mainstream attention before now and that that hasn't gotten very far. So the outside view is something to the effect that every few decades scientists become much more interested in life-extension, it doesn't go very far, and then they go do other things.
If all your premises are essentially timeless then one needs to ask if one would have expected this to happen in the past. If for example in 1950, 1900 or 1850, scientists decided to put in a maximal amount of effort into extending human lifespan, do you think they would be as likely to be successful as you think scientists now would be? Maybe you can make that argument for 1950, but I'd be surprised if you'd make that claim about 1900 or 1850. This means that your statement has to include at least one premise involving the level of current medical and scientific knowledge that didn't apply then.
Edited to add:
Yeah, I seem to be wrong here. According to this survey for rodents there's more increase on the average than the maximal but there's a large increase in the maximal age as well.
It couldn't go very far, technology wasn't ready. It probably still isn't ready, but until that's the case, we wouldn't expect any progress anyway, so its absence says little.
Right. I completely agree with that. The issue is then how do we know that things are so much more advanced now that Logos can say that he "cannot conceive of a worldline resultant from the here-and-now that would not include the datapoint that within fifty years from today, antiagapics research had extended human lifespans by at least another fifty years." I'm not arguing that his projection doesn't look likely from what we know. But the estimate of it being so likely as for alternatives to be inconceivable seems indicate an extreme and unjustified level of confidence.
That's not even remotely valid. The interest in actual, honest anti-agapic research ongoing now (and for the last five or six years which in terms of medical research is "now") has never before occurred. It is exactly a new thing.
It certainly has never had widespread mainstream acceptance within the medical research community. (And by the way; inducing clinical immortality in lineages of cells has been going on for several decades. It's nothing new, and it is not related to antiagapics research in the slightest. If it were, you would have been in the rights to bring up the story of "The Immortal Woman" Henrietta Lacks. Keeping lineages of cells alive is easy. Preventing aging in multicellular organisms is not. They also aren't related fields of endeavor.
Understanding that keeping cell cultures alive doesn't have anything to do with preventing aging is a modern understanding that arose after scientists tried to see if they were connected and failed. Contemporary scientists of Carrel for example certainly thought they were related. It is only in hindsight that we've realized that that wasn't the case. The discovery of the Hayflick limit was a major step in realizing that. In fact, that discovery killed off further anti-aging research in the 1960s and it took a while for it to recover.
We seem to have an actual factual dispute here. Or it may be an issue of what you mean by "actual" and "honest". But for example, work in trying to extend telomeres dates from the 1990s and the basic idea about telomeres dates from the 1970s. I don't know if this work gets classified if as "actual, honest" by you since it turned out to a large extent to not work as well as people thought it might. Also, in regards to the issue of premises, are you asserting that if scientists in 1900 or 1950 had put in current levels of attention into anti-aging that they would have succeeded at the level you estimate? I suspect not, which means that there has to be some other detail here that's relevant concerning our current knowledge level. There's an unstated premise about how much medical/biochem knowledge we have now.
I'll note incidentally that the argument you are making now is substantially weaker than the argument you made earlier in the thread where you said:
which apparently has now become last five or six years. Does this represent an update of your views on the timeline?
The topic in question is fuzzy/indeterminite. The transition to widespread acceptance from marginalization was not instantaneous. The work currently ongoing began sometime after Resveratrol's antiagapic effects were discovered.
There were also minor items of research over the years which were conducted -- but senescence was, definitively, seen by the mainstream medical community as something to which only palliative care was worthy of researching, as opposed to senescence itself being a treatable condition.
Even that much is somewhat new historically speaking: there were no geriatricians in the US until 1978, for example.
No, its failure to that end has little to nothing to do with the topic at hand. It doesn't apply for the simple reason that the research in question was not done for the purpose of combating senescence. It was never meant as anything other than a tool for theoretical understanding of the role of telomeres in biology -- a topic we still understand only very poorly, with many conflicting ideas about the specific functions and purposes therein.
No. I have no such claim to make. They might have discovered something like resveratrol and ways to make it available to the common public -- that is, pharmaceutically mimic the caloric restriction effect -- and it's possible that if we extend this counterfactual scenario to the 80s'/90's, it's also possible that some other genetic therapies might have been uncovered/disseminated by now. (For example; work is currently ongoing at the SENS group to determine if senescent white blood cells can be screened from the body in a process similar to dialysis, which would allow the 'more vital' cells to repopulate within the patient, thereby restoring a more vital immune system, prolonging disease resistance in the elderly. This is also something that conceptually could have been in widespread application as early as the late 70's.)
No, there really isn't. It's not about that. It's about topical focus. It's about old age itself being seen as a topic worthy of being disassembled and its mechanisms researched in order to find solutions to that effect. The failure for this to have occurred until now is not representative of any promise of immediate success upon the conceptual breakthrough but rather a guarantee of the absence of success in the absence of the concept.
I'm reminded of a science fiction short story that delineates this same idea, in a way, though obviously with more "fantastic" results: Turtledove's "The Road Not Taken".
I don't get that impression from my (limited) knowledge of the field. If Stipp's book is accurate then there have been many attempts in the last hundred years by serious scientists.
but also specific estimates for the current technological level and general knowledge level. So the question becomes then how confident are you in those estimates? Pedictions of sweeping change are usually wrong. Such changes do sometimes occur from technologies, but most of those are things like ubiquitous cell phones or the internet or GPS which are not heavily anticipated or are anticipated in only a rough fashion. The outside view suggests that predictions about major technologies should have their confidences reduced.
This can't be all that matters if the same result would not have occurred in 1950 or 1900 (or even more to the point 1850). That means that at least one premise needs to be not just about topical focus but about the overarching technological level. To use a weak analogy, post 1945 or so it woud be fair to say that the only issue preventing a major power from getting to the moon was one of topical focus. But that's because one is taking into account the general tec level. I couldn't make that claim in 1900 or 1850. And in defending that difference, I have to be able to point to specific technologies that they had in 1945 that they didn't in 1900.
It seems to me that you are arguing in a way that is useful to convince someone who assigns a very low probability that lifespan extension will occur that they should assign a high probability. That's not a point I disagree with. The issue is your claim that:
This is in context a bit stronger than this because you seem to be claiming not that people born fifty years from now will have a lifespan extension of another fifty years but that this will apply to people who are already old. This is a difficult position since with the exceptions of prosthetics and tissue-cloning, most of the plausible methods of life extension (such as reservatrol) rely on starting the process when people are young. Even if we have some form of reservatrol-like compound in fifty years that slows aging down to a crawl, someone who is a hundred years old at that point will still have the cells of a centenarian (assuming minimal prior anti-aging treatments).
Moreover, one can easily conceive of circumstances where many of the proposed anti-aging systems just won't work. For example, humans have a much longer average life-span than most mammals. It could turn out that humans already do something to their cells that mimics most of the effects of reservatrol.
There's also a general evolutionary issue at work here: If a species has a maximal lifespan of around L, then if there are any ways to get more reproductive fitness at a younger age that create problems sometime around or after L. So, one should expect not just one thing to go wrong as a species ages, but lots of things to go wrong. In fact, this is close to what one sees. If this problem is severe enough, it is possible that there are diseases which will show up in the very elderly that we haven't even noticed yet because the population of such people is just too small.
To further this discussion, over at Prediction Book I've made a series of predictions about age extension related predictions. I'm curious how much and where your estimates disagree with mine. (I'm not including separate links to each, but the ones on that list are the reservatrol predictions and the sets about oldest living people).
Then you should re-read that book -- it was espousing exactly my own position in this dialogue!
I never said nobody before had ever tried to do anything that would potentially impact human longevity scientifically.
I did say that antiagapics research as a primary goal has never before this generation existed within the mainstream medical community.
Point #2 was the entire purpose of the book you're trying to cite as a contradiction of my position.
The overwhelming majority of work done previously was either not directly intended to the effect of preventing aging in humans or else was done by 'fringe' actors without generalized support from the general consensus as to their topics being worthwhile endeavors before their results came in. (I add this qualifier to make it clear I'm not talking about after-the-fact 'well, clearly that was foolish. It didn't work' stuff.)
This is asinine. Science is a convergent, not a divergent, endeavor. Increased knowledge in one field necessarily alters or amplifies the impact of knowledge in another. I said nothing to contradict this and gave several examples of it being affirmed.
Regarding your predictionbook listings: I put a very low probability of resveratrol hitting the public market within twenty years, but only because I am familiar with the FDA approvals process and how convoluted it is. I'd estimate more like in the 20's-40's for the 2025 date, and I do not believe it to be possible at this point for the 2019 date. I don't find your estimate of the millennarian proposal exceptional.
This is a testable hypothesis and it has already been falsified. We share cellular metabolism with calorie unrestricted organisms, and not with CR-organisms. Furthermore, while human lifespans are longer than most mammals (not all but most), they certainly aren't by any means exceptional for even warm-blooded organisms in general.
Sure. But that's irrelevant. With the topic having received, finally, mainstream attention -- we've gone from the periodic instance of the isolated potential investigation to the spaghetti method: throw everything at the wall and see what sticks.
That being said:
Nowhere did I ever make that claim. The closest you might come to this is the fact that I was applying it to people my own age. I am currently thirty. If resveratrol is approved by the time I am fifty (i.e.; 2031), then my taking it at that point will (assuming resveratrol extends remaining life expectancy by 50%), will extend what would otherwise be roughly 30 years to 45 years. Should tissue-cloning further provide genetically-identical-but-metabolically-barely-post-adolescent organs, then I should expect that this would provide heightened vitality to extend at least another ten to fifteen years of life. Etc., etc..
That's a common field of topic for geriatrics-study in general. Topically reproductive fitness tends to drop to zero sometime before the age of sixty in humans. Yet, when health impediments and nutrition are eliminated as problems (1st-world-countries), women still tend to live a few years longer than men. Most conjecture on this has it that women are 'more useful' than men evolutionarily even at older ages: grandmas can care for the little 'uns which lets mom make the food. Etc., etc..
A lot of the behavioral trends, patterns, and complications associated with senescence in humans are very well understood: that is, after all, the entire focus of geriontology.
A major theme of the book is that there is a strong modern interest in combating aging. But that's not a point we disagree on. The disagreement point seems to be how much historical interest there was.
Your points 2 and 4 above in that regard are not accurate. And Stipp's book reflects that. In the very first chapter he notes how early 20th century gland implantation attempts were taken seriously by major, respected scientists. He includes as examples Charles Brown-Sequard. I agree that there's more interest in anti-aging than there has been in the past, but the claim that prior attempts at anti-aging were not considered worthwhil endeavors or were restricted to the fringe simply aren't accurate.
I don't understand what you mean by this, and all attempts to parse it don't seem to produce responses that make sense as a response to my remark. Can you rephrase or expand what you mean here?
The hypothesies has definitely not been falsified. There's evidence against it. But that isn't the same thing at all. It isn't just our cellular metabolism that matters in this context. We don't fully understand how reservatrol extends lifespan. We know that it has effects similar to caloric restriction, but without a better understanding of how it is doing that we don't know. This is also but one of a variety of things that could go wrong. Consider for example that we use a reservatrol-like compound for a while and then it turns out that something in the human diet that isn't in our lab environment interferes with it. These are but two examples.
In general maximal lifespans are roughly correlated with size in mammals. But, compared to most large mammals great apes have a larger lifespan even given good medical care to those species. Of all the great apes, this disparity is strongest with humans. Chimpanzees, one of humans closest living relativies, have a maximal lifespan of around sixty years, approximately half that of the human. Chimps size is smaller than humans on average, but not by that much. Similarly, bears are normally larger than humans and the other great apes, yet the oldest age for bears is around 45 years. Humans seem to have adopted some aspects that are pushing our maximal age up that aren't in most other mammals.
Sure, that's more likely to work. But that's a far cry from every probable world-line from here either involving civilizational collapse or absolute success. Consider the possibility that we spend thirty years trying to throw all the spaghetti on the wall and none of it sticks It may be that I'm reflecting my own biases since I'm in a field (math) where lots of smart people can spend a lot of time working on a problem and it can still take hundreds of years to solve.
Yes, I see. You didn't make this claim. I misinterpreted your current age. The claim being made is weaker than I thought, although still a very strong claim.
I don't fully understand how your last paragraph is relevant to the bit it is responding to.
No, they aren't, and no, it doesn't. I don't know how to be any more clear on that one.
"In his extreme old age, he advocated the hypodermic injection of a fluid prepared from the testicles of guinea pigs and dogs, as a means of prolonging human life. It was known, among scientists, derisively, as the Brown-Séquard Elixir."
I find myself confused as to how anyone could legitimately, upon reading what you claim to have read, hold forth the stance you claim to hold. I find it to be internally and externally inconsistent with the axiomatic assumption of rational honesty.
Average human lifespan (with medical care) is roughly analogous to the average human lifespan of the elephant, so that's not exceptional. But I didn't limit my statement to mammals but to endothermal.
Attempts to project from the past into the future are doomed to failure when they do not take into account the present. When attempting to extrapolate and make predictions it is always a modal failure to use an incorrect model.
Medicine is not like math. It is far more like engineering.
It was a selected example of the products of geriontology with regards to the behaviors of longevity in humans as they approach senescence. It was, therefore, a direct rebuttal of your hypothetical.
... Increased knowledge in one field necessarily alters or amplifies the impact of knowledge in another. Are you familiar with the concept of scientific convergence?
The hypothesis was "maybe humans already have calorie-restricted metabolisms". This has been falsified. This is not even remotely questionable. It's false. We've got proof on the matter.
You're changing topics here. Resveratrol isn't the same topic as the hypothetical. How resveratrol works or doesn't work has absolutely nothing to do with the question of "do humans already have a calorie-restricted metabolic cycle?" -- saving that if resveratrol induces that cycle and we have no other proof on the matter, it would answer the question definitively negatively. Thankfully, we don't need to rely upon resveratrol to answer that question. It's already been answered.
This is juvenile. There isn't a single thing on the planet that everyone consumes besides air and probably water. After that, it's isolation and elimination from diets. And that's how science is done. C'mon now -- let's try to restrict our hypotheticals to things that are at least remotely plausible within the current world-line?
It is a strong claim which emerges from a large series of independent small claims each with high probability individually. There is a saying; "three ifs ruin a plan". You'd have to have far more than three "ifs" for my claim to turn out to be wrong. Far, far more than.
The Wikipedia quote is unsourced. (My main source of knowledge about Brown-Sequard's involvement is Stipp's book and a few other minor sources none of which mention the derisive elixir claim.)
Is this intended as a personal attack or is there some other intention? This looks a bit like a series of boo lights apparently directed at me. But I'm already convinced that you and I have sufficiently different communication styles that I may be simply misreading this. What do you mean by "axiomatic assumptions of rational honesty" and how do you think what I have said is "internally" and "externally" inconsistent? Trying to interpret this, I'm getting something like "I don't think an individual who is trying to be rational and have an intellectually honest dialogue could distort sources the way you are doing." Is that what you mean to say? I can sort of see how you might get that if you thought I was using the Wikipedia article as a source. I just linked to it because although he was a major scientist around 1900, he's fairly obscure now. I didn't read it. Does that possibly explain the confusion here?
Right, and I limited mine to mammals since it is a lot easier to look in that context, since the metabolisms are pretty different. Note by the way that your example of an elephant actually shows my point pretty well: elephants are an order of magnitude larger than humans yet humans have maximal lifespans slightly exceeding that of an elephant. The oldest elephants have been a bit over 80 years old. That's in captivity with good veterinary care. But even without modern medical care humans have exceeded 110 years (albeit very rarely). There are two obvious issues with this (humans pay a lot more attention to old humans than old elephants, and we have a much larger supply of well-documented humans than we do of well-documented elephants), so it wouldn't be unreasonable to suspect that with a large enough sample the elephants' maximal age would look closer to the human maximal age. But then there's the whole order of magnitude larger thing. It does seem like great apes and humans in particular are already doing something else that has extended our maximal lifespan.
Sure. I'd agree with that. So let's look at engineering examples where lots of resources have gone into things. Fusion power would be a really good example. There have been billions of dollars put into fusion power research in the last fifty years (see e.g. this for data on but one source of funding from the US government that has given billions of dollars to fusion research). Famously, fusion power is always about twenty-five years away. Sometimes problems are just tough. Sometimes the wall isn't as sticky as you think it is.
Yes. But I still don't see how this is in any way results in a conclusion that the statement in question "is asinine". So I'm still confused.
Please don't tell me what my hypothesis was. The comment you were responding to was me raising the possibility that:
Notice that this statement says nothing at all about caloric restriction. The rest of your next paragraph is similarly irrelevant.
I don't see what's juvenile about this, and it would be slightly appreciated if you would make arguments that didn't involve unnecessary personal attacks. Your observation about what is commonly consumed is quite accurate. So, if there's something common in say the Western diet that reduces the effects of reservatrol or some similar compound, we might not even notice until we notice that the anti-aging compound is having much less of an effect than anticipated. And then you'd need to go and test those compounds. That sort of problem falls easily in the "remotely plausible" line of failures or in the "conceivable" world-lines you mentioned earlier.
That's fine if your claim is "this is likely to work" or even "this is very likely to work." But you've claimed that there's no conceivable world-line where this isn't working in fifty years and there hasn't been societal collapse or something similar preventing the research.
At this point, I have to wonder if we are running into problems of inferential distance. This is why I tried to ask you to make your earlier chain of logic explicit. Reducing it to premises like the non-supernatural nature of biology and then saying etc. is not helpful for bridging inferential distance gaps.
If I say I am confused, then I mean that I am confused.
I mean that I take it as an axiomatic principle that my conversants are honest and rational actors until such time as they demonstrate otherwise.
Internally inconsistent means that the statements contradict themselves. Externally inconsistent means the statements contradict the known facts outside the statements.
You and I have the same datasets available for this conversation. You claim that you have read Stipp's book and yet you still claim that there has been strong historical interest in antiagapics research within the mainstream community. Stipps book contradicts this claim.
This is an internally inconsistent claim. You then go on to make many externally inconsistent statements such as claiming that the question of whether humans operate on calorie-restricted metabolism is yet at question, or the claim that geriontology's studies of human longevity have sufficiently little to do with determining the maximal human lifespan that you are confused by why I would even bring it up.
These are all points that tend to lead towards the conclusion of dishonesty or irrationality on your part. I'm not trying to claim that I have made that conclusion, just that I am confused as to how it is possible that you are not being dishonest or irrational -- because I am continuing to operate on the axiomatic assumption that you are in fact honest and rational.
No, it doesn't. No pharmaceutical will receive widespread adoption until such time as it has been rigorously studied for how it behaves and what its contraindications and/or interactions are. That includes diets. These are all things that are normally controlled for. There is nothing "remotely plausible" about your proposed scenario: the entire pharmaceutical approvals process would have to be abandoned for it to occur.
There isn't any one single this, is my point. Science and medicine are converging significantly. There is now a concerted effort to solving this particular problem. The scale of extension is, compared to what is conceivable possible, very minor.
My claim is that there are so many things which can be stated to be very likely to work that the idea of all of them failing would require a total overhaul of several fundamental models that I hold to be true based on their history of providing valid conclusions.
I don't believe that the problem we have here is one of inferential distance. I am very familiar with what that problem looks like. What we have instead is the fact that somehow we are both operating with the same sets of available data yet reaching different conclusions.
Aumann's Agreement Theorem has something to say about that -- and with that I suppose I am now verging into the territory of claiming dishonesty/irrationality on your part. (I admit it could conceivable be on my part as well, but I have as yet no indications towards inconsistency in any of my statements aside from the assumption of rational-honesty on your part.)
I don't see how they rebut the hypothetical in question that you were responding to.
I said:
You then said:
I don't see how this response makes sense. It would be a response if I had been talking about evolution having certain effects post the age of reproduction. But in my comment I was talking about probable maximal age. These are not the same thing. Indeed, you seem to be just trying to argue that they aren't. That doesn't address my statement at all.
Evolution has effects past the age of reproduction. Such as determining the probable maximal age of the organism. If there is group fitness to be contributed by an individual organism to the whole even without reproduction involved, then that individual organism's survival is selected for -- even though it itself reproducing isn't. (This is an ancillary to kin-selection.) Average maximal lifespan of an organism is something that is determined genetically -- and thus is a product of evolutionary history and 'strategy'.
My point, however, wasn't about evolution in this context -- rather, it was about individual fitness metrics for maximal age of the human organism and, more specifically, the efforts of geriontology to uncover that data.
So yes, my statement directly addresses yours. I was specifically pointing out that the thing you were raising as a question is a field that is already well studied.