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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Real-Life Anthropic Weirdness - Less Wrong
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How likely is it that, say, at least 10 people think they're Barack Obama, only one of which is correct?
Being mistaken about your importance is different from, and much more common than, being mistaken about who/where you are.
Unless most conscious observers are ancestor simulations of people in positions of historical importance, in which case most people are correct about the importance of the position and incorrect about who/where they are.
(Vide Doomsday Argument, Simulation Argument, and the "surprise" of finding yourself on Ancient Earth rather than much later in a civilization's development. Of course these are all long-standing controversies in anthropics, I'm just raising their existence.)
Among people who believe themselves to be Barack Obama, most are mistaken about their position rather than the importance of the position.
Agreed.
Not all that unlikely. There have certainly been a lot of people who have believed themselves to be Napoleon or Jesus. I'd say 10 Obamas seems a little right now, but I wouldn't be at all surprised by, say, three.
"seems a little MUCH right now", I meant.