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see comments on Planets in the habitable zone, the Drake Equation, and the Great Filter - Less Wrong
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That really doesn't work.
If there is nothing making the development and survival of intelligent tool-using life intrinsically improbable, the odds are at least billions to one against Earth being first in our light cone. Any hypothetical Great Filter that has odds of mere millions-to-one against being true is a substantially superior hypothesis to "we just happened to be first".