NancyLebovitz comments on Planets in the habitable zone, the Drake Equation, and the Great Filter - Less Wrong

11 Post author: JoshuaZ 01 October 2011 02:44AM

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Comment author: NancyLebovitz 10 May 2013 05:25:51AM 0 points [-]

Isn't "someone had to win" the rationalist explanation for most lottery winners?

Comment author: RobbBB 15 June 2013 08:52:59AM *  1 point [-]

'Someone had to win' isn't a full explanation on its own, no. (If it were, it would be a fully general explanation schema; 'something had to happen', for example, can explain any event.) Rather, 'someone had to win' is an explanation for an unlikely victory when you posit a large sample space. In most cases, selection bias will also play a role in the explanation -- it will account for the prima facie salience or interestingness of the event.

If selection bias and the size of the sample space don't help make you any less confused about why some X happened to you, then revisiting 'someone had to X' shouldn't alleviate your confusion.