I was hoping for Eliezer's answer. If you have an answer, I'd advise posting it separately.
As for your answer, suppose it's more likely that he'll torture 3^^^^3 people if you give him the money. Now you can't give him the money. Now he's just Pascal mugging you into not giving him money. It's the same principle.
Also, the same principle could be done in infinitely many ways. I'm sure there's some way in which it can make the correct choice to be one you wouldn't have done.
It's the same principle.
It's not at all the same. This is not a problem invoking Omega. If you want that go to the lifespan dilemma.
If we know Omega has 3^^^^3 sided dice and will kill the people if it lands on the one, then I'd shut up and calculate.
Pascal's wager involves much more uncertainty than that. It involves uncertainty about the character speaking. Once a being is claiming it has magic and wants you to do something, to the extent one believes the magic part, one loses one's base of reference to judge the being as truthful, non-whimsical, etc.
Today's post, Pascal's Mugging: Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities was originally published on 19 October 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
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