Konkvistador comments on Rationality Quotes October 2011 - Less Wrong

3 Post author: MinibearRex 03 October 2011 06:41AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Article Navigation

Comments (532)
Tags: quotes

Comments (532)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: [deleted] 23 October 2011 10:59:30AM *  25 points [-]

A decision was wise, even though it led to disastrous consequences, if the evidence at hand indicated it was the best one to make; and a decision was foolish, even though it led to the happiest possible consequences, if it was unreasonable to expect those consequences.

-- Herodotus

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 24 October 2011 06:05:45AM 3 points [-]

The problem with that quote is that human biases often go the other way, i.e., we'd rather blame bad consequences on bad luck then admit we made a bad decision.

Comment author: J_Taylor 24 October 2011 06:43:31AM 4 points [-]

The quote may still have some use when applied to humans other than oneself.

Comment author: gwern 23 October 2011 08:08:03PM 3 points [-]

I tried to track this down, and this seems to be Jaynes's paraphrase of Herodotus; pg 2 of "Bayesian Methods: General Background". (I looked through one translation, http://classics.mit.edu/Herodotus/history.mb.txt , and was unable to locate it.)

Comment author: [deleted] 23 October 2011 08:56:13PM *  1 point [-]

I got it out of "Data Analysis A Bayesian Tutorial" pg 4 where it is attributed to Herodotus

Around 500 BC, Herodotus said much the same thing: ‘A decision was wise, even though it led to disastrous consequences, if the evidence at hand indicated it was the best one to make; and a decision was foolish, even though it led to the happiest possible consequences, if it was unreasonable to expect those consequences.’

Comment author: gwern 23 October 2011 09:43:43PM 11 points [-]

After some more searching and a pointer on Straight Dope, I think I've found it in Book 7 of the Histories when Artabanus is trying to dissuade Xerxes from launching his ill-fated war against the Greeks, where it is, as one would expect from Jaynes's paraphrase, different:

"1 So do not plan to run the risk of any such danger when there is no need for it. Listen to me instead: for now dismiss this assembly; consider the matter by yourself and, whenever you so please, declare what seems best to you. 2 A well-laid plan is always to my mind most profitable; even if it is thwarted later, the plan was no less good, and it is only chance that has baffled the design; but if fortune favor one who has planned poorly, then he has gotten only a prize of chance, and his plan was no less bad."

Or in another translation:

"Think then no more of incurring so great a danger when no need presses, but follow the advice I tender. Break up this meeting, and when thou hast well considered the matter with thyself, and settled what thou wilt do, declare to us thy resolve. I know not of aught in the world that so profits a man as taking good counsel with himself; for even if things fall out against one's hopes, still one has counselled well, though fortune has made the counsel of none effect: whereas if a man counsels ill and luck follows, he has gotten a windfall, but his counsel is none the less silly."

Powered by Reddit Powered by Reddit