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kilobug comments on Open thread, October 2011 - Less Wrong
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I estimate, that a currently working and growing superintelligence has a probability in a range of 1/million to 1/1000. I am at least 50% confident that it is so.
Not a big probability but given the immense importance of such an object, it is already a significant event to consider. The very near term birth of a superintelligence is something to think about. It wouldn't be just another Sputnik launched by some other people you thought they are unable to make it, but they sure were. We know that well, it wouldn't be just a minor blow for a pride as Sputnik was for some, and a triumph for others who conceived it and launched it.
No, that could be a check mate in a first move.
Non the less, people are dismissive of any short term success in the field. I am not and I want to express it in an open thread.
The probability is already just an expression of your own uncertainty. Giving a confidence interval over the probability does not make sense.
Well, the probability is computed by an algorithm that is itself imperfect. "I'm 50% confident that the probability is 1/1000" means something like "My computation gives a probably of 1/1000, but I'm only 50% confident that I did it right". For example, if given a complex maths problem about probabilities of getting some card patterns from a deck with twisted rules of drawing and shuffling, you can do that maths, ends up with a probability of 1/5 that you'll get the pattern, but not be confident you didn't make a mistake in applying the laws of probability, so you'll only give a 50% confidence to that answer.
And there is also the difference between belief and belief in belief. I can something "I believe the probability to be of 1/1000, but I'm only 50% confident that this is my real belief, and not just a belief in belief".
Maybe when you say it, that's what you mean (do you say it?), but that's pretty weak evidence about what Thomas means. Added: oops, I didn't mean to revive something two years old.