Jonathan_Graehl comments on Open thread, October 2011 - Less Wrong
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Comments (308)
I agree. Perhaps he means to say that his opinion is based on very little evidence and is "just a hunch".
I do think that in fitting a model to data, you can give meaningful confidence intervals for parameters of those models which correspond to probabilities (e.g. p(heads) for a particular coin flipping device). But that's not relevant here.