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Jack comments on Open thread, October 2011 - Less Wrong
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The right kind of data would come from things like the National Crime Victimization Survey which collects data outside the criminal justice system. The base rate for the offender in a violent crime being black, is, according to that survey, lower than the probability that a given person arrested for a violent crime is black. So it looks to me that the evidence is long screened out by the time the case gets to the court room.
Note that the NCVS requires that the victims survive, and does not collect data on crimes like murder, which may cause systematic differences.
Right. I'm comparing particular categories of crime-- reports from robbery victims to arrests for robbery, reports of rape to arrests for rape etc. I'm definitely not comparing total arrests for violent crimes to reports of violent crimes minus homicide.
I presumed as much, but that problem may still be noticeable: every rape that's also a murder won't get counted. I don't know how frequently the various violent crimes are paired with murder, though, or how large the difference between reported victimization and arrests are.
Good point.