Last night, I had an idea for a post to write for LW. My idea was something along the following:
For many good reasons, LessWrong-ers have gone through great lengths to explain how to use Bayes' theorem. While understanding Bayes' theorem is essential to rationality, has anyone written an explanation (targeted toward traditional rationalists) about why Bayes' theorem is so essential in the first place? If such a post hasn't be written, maybe I could write that post...
Here are some of the main points I'm thinking of addressing
I suppose my overarching goal is this: if someone mentions Bayes' theorem in a discussion and they get a blank look from their interlocutor, they can first point them toward my post to give them the basic idea of what Bayes theorem is and why it is useful. Then, if they're enticed, then they can go learn the rigorous mathematics about the subject.
Has such a post already been written? If it hasn't, do you think such a post would be helpful? Would it be appropriate for LW?
All constructive criticism, advice, and questions are welcome.
I'd love to see the kind of post you're describing regardless of any overlap with previous posts. If you're aiming for a basic introduction targeted at non-LWers, I think you have a roughly the right amount of subject matter to make it work. If you're aiming for a more in-depth analysis, you might want to split the topics up into separate posts.
Luke wrote this post on the history of Bayes' Theorem, which incorporates some of these ideas.
This thread is for discussing anything that doesn't seem to deserve its own post.
If the resulting discussion becomes impractical to continue here, it means the topic is a promising candidate for its own thread.