Tetronian comments on Open thread, October 2011 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: MarkusRamikin 02 October 2011 09:05AM

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Comment author: [deleted] 19 October 2011 05:14:07PM *  3 points [-]

Last night, I had an idea for a post to write for LW. My idea was something along the following:

For many good reasons, LessWrong-ers have gone through great lengths to explain how to use Bayes' theorem. While understanding Bayes' theorem is essential to rationality, has anyone written an explanation (targeted toward traditional rationalists) about why Bayes' theorem is so essential in the first place? If such a post hasn't be written, maybe I could write that post...

Here are some of the main points I'm thinking of addressing

  • A very brief history of Bayes' theorem and its past usefulness.
  • The advantages of Bayesian rationality over traditional rationality. (For example, the ability to directly update your beliefs in proportion to the evidence.)
  • How their traditional logic is just a special case of Bayesian rationality
  • A list of more resources for further study

I suppose my overarching goal is this: if someone mentions Bayes' theorem in a discussion and they get a blank look from their interlocutor, they can first point them toward my post to give them the basic idea of what Bayes theorem is and why it is useful. Then, if they're enticed, then they can go learn the rigorous mathematics about the subject.

Has such a post already been written? If it hasn't, do you think such a post would be helpful? Would it be appropriate for LW?

All constructive criticism, advice, and questions are welcome.

Comment author: [deleted] 19 October 2011 07:03:02PM *  2 points [-]

I'd love to see the kind of post you're describing regardless of any overlap with previous posts. If you're aiming for a basic introduction targeted at non-LWers, I think you have a roughly the right amount of subject matter to make it work. If you're aiming for a more in-depth analysis, you might want to split the topics up into separate posts.

Luke wrote this post on the history of Bayes' Theorem, which incorporates some of these ideas.

Comment author: [deleted] 19 October 2011 08:22:29PM *  1 point [-]

Thanks for the support, Tetronian!

I think you said it well. I am "aiming for a basic introduction targeted at non-LWers." This will be my first post on the main site, so I want write something important without it being overwhelming for myself and the reader. So I want to to be short, non-technical, and without LW-vernacular.

I've read a lot of Luke's work, including the post you linked. His work is fantastic and he's a very big inspiration to me. I think his work is what (in major part) helped led me to this idea.

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