MatthewW comments on Bayesian analysis under threat in British courts - Less Wrong

10 Post author: whpearson 03 October 2011 04:06PM

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Comment author: MatthewW 03 October 2011 07:28:22PM 4 points [-]

Thanks for the link.

I think paragraphs 80 to 86 are the key paragraphs.

They're declaring that using a formula isn't allowed in cases where the numbers plugged into the formula are themselves uncertain.

But in this case, where there was uncertainty in the underlying data the expert tried to take a conservative figure. The judges don't seem to think that helps, but they don't say why. In particular, para 108 iv) seems rather wrongheaded for this reason.

(It looks like one of the main reasons they overturned the original judgement was that the arguments in court ended up leaving the jury hearing less conservative estimates of the underlying figures than the ones the expert used (paras 103 and 108). That seems like a poor advertisement for the practice of keeping explicit calculations away from the jury.)