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Except the actual P(ego|ent, sim) is not based on the percentage of cases where the game includes a self-insert, but the cases where such a self-insert is to be glorified in the simulation.
Why rule out the avatar arranging to be glorified under a minor name or cult? For example, when Gary Gygax self-inserted himself as a deity in Greyhawk, it was as a minor demigod of humor in a polytheistic religious system.
I'm not aware of, for example, any Sid Meyer games where the self-insert glorification is of the game's programmer(s), as opposed to the game's player. Since the player (as opposed to a creator/programmer) rarely has even the ability to follow through on promises he makes to simulated people in such games, and the players typically outnumber the creators by multiple orders of magnitude, this should be a lot smaller, by multiple orders of magnitude.
Your D&D reference makes an interesting point. Close to 100% of computer games do involve glorification of the self-insert - whether that's a basketball game or Grand Theft Auto. (Almost all of the counterexamples, as measured by gameplay instances, were designed by Will Wright.) But a high percentage of roleplaying games don't involve glorification of the self-insert. BUT, these non-self-glorifying roleplaying games are not mass-merchandise products. (The mass market for D&D and White Wolf games ARE self-glorifying munchkins.)
I'm talking about the player. There's no reason to talk about the programmer. You think God is the programmer? That doesn't correspond to what we see in our world today. You are assuming God lives in a society with an economy so primitive it doesn't have skill specialization.
Just the opposite. My assumption is that God is not the programmer, therefore he has no independent ability whatsoever to actually follow-through. The only person who can build follow-through into the simulation is the programmer. If every God was a programmer (like JoshuaZ suggests), ten percent of the God-programmers bothering to build in follow-through for the simulated beings that gratified their egos might make sense. But, assuming specialization where God is just a player, why would the programmer design in a Heaven to reward simulated people who worshiped and glorified the player? The simulated beings never did the slightest thing for the programmer, after all.
Maybe there would be a lot of demand for games with follow-through, but how many current games do you know of that spend the time and effort not just to program in a Heaven for dead characters, but then spend resources actually simulating it while the program runs? Where the Heaven is actually a Heaven, as opposed to another simulated world of troubles and suffering existing to entertain the player?
So my expectation is that a follow-through value of 0.1 is orders of magnitude too high. Not even 10% of the simulations are going to even have the option of an afterlife, and then most people won't turn it on in the options screen because they'd rather spend the computing power on a bigger/better primary simulation.
It's part of the game. It's not something that happens after the game end. Possibly Heaven and Hell keep getting fuller and fuller as the game goes on.
Actually, there's at least one Sid Meier game where the programmers have allowed you to do something sort of like this. In Alpha Centari, when you conquer another faction there's an image of the captured leader being tortured. (Even if you play a character who is nominally fairly peaceful, you still get this image.)
Also, if one is positing that there's a civilization advanced enough to spend time making sims, one can reasonably argue that they will be capable enough such that any of them could program the sim themselves, in a way similar to how anyone can program a Basic program to say "Hello World!" in our world.
But that actually supports my thing about follow-through, I think. I didn't like that video clip. But even when I found the directory the clips were stored in on my disk, I didn't bother to hunt down that specific clip and delete it. How many other people did? How many people made a buying or playing decision based on the video? The simulated beings get whatever the programmer decided to code, and that's that.
Our civilisation is advanced enough to spend time making computer games. This doesn't mean the average person can make a computer game.
Anologously, in the hypothetical highly advanced civilisation, it could be that it's considered basic to program a halo-equivalent, but only very few would be able to program a worldsim.