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PhilGoetz comments on Pascal's wager re-examined - Less Wrong
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Comments (117)
Two things I haven't seen anyone else point out.
The most popular PC games ever are The Sims and The Sims 2. Then World of Warcraft which is a multiplayer game. Single player games with avatars do not make up 99% of the market, not even close. And that says nothing about the non-electronic games people play like sports and dating which are almost all multi-player.
Quite a few have not died yet. One might infer from history that they will- but once you decide we're in an entertainment simulation that evidence is worth little- the simulation may have just begun. I suggest you seriously consider swearing allegiance to Kim Jong Il. Further, there is no particular reason to assume the player is any good at the game- perhaps she died without saving in 500 BCE.
In general the probabilities are really off and you haven't dealt with the issue of having extreme utilities for competing choices (should I choose Christianity or Islam or trying to extend my life and save the world?). But I upvoted because it is kind of interesting and not deserving of -7, though I predict it will go much lower than that.
I didn't know that about the Sims. That's what Wikipedia says also. But the number of video-game console games sold is several times the number of PC games sold. The next-best-selling games appear to be Wii Sports and Tetris. But, Wii sports was bundled with the console and often never played; and tetris is a phone game which has very little CPU power - there are reasons this is important, but I don't have time to explain.
So p(ego|...) needs revision - probably to somewhere between .5 and .9.
p(ego) and p(follow-thru) might not be independent. The demographics of players playing what I call 'ego' games is heavily skewed towards adolescent males, as is the demographics of people who enjoy torturing small animals.
Thanks! I do think I deserve some credit for coming up with what may be a better argument for Christianity and for Islam than all the Christians and Muslims in the world working together have managed to come up with in 2000 years. :)
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What is the iterated lossy cross-scale Keynesian beauty contest?
I can't tell whether anything you said is supposed to imply that there is a flaw in my reasoning. "Supporting whatever agentic information cascades have already most effectively burrowed themselves into the most salient cultural-political sphere" is not obviously wrong. When I provide a step-by-step argument that assigns a probability to each step and then multiplies them together, it has a limited number of places to attack; and you didn't mention any of them.
I don't understand much of what you wrote; but my impression is that you are trying to pull the discussion back into vague, subjective regions that provide endless opportunities for rhetorical displays, and no danger of making progress.