timtyler comments on Pascal's wager re-examined - Less Wrong

-8 Post author: PhilGoetz 05 October 2011 08:43AM

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Comment author: timtyler 04 October 2011 05:51:10PM *  2 points [-]

If you accept the simulation argument, then P(sim) > .99.

That is not the usual conclusion of the simulation argument.

The conclusion of it is this:

at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage is very close to zero; (2) The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is very close to zero; (3) The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one.

Comment author: PhilGoetz 04 October 2011 09:54:24PM 0 points [-]

Tim, I assume you meant this as a nit-pick rather than as a substantive criticism. Substitute "if you accept option 3 of the simulation argument".

If you think this objection is substantive, I expect you to lower the probability you assign to reaching post-humanity and to posthumans wanting to run simulations. (The "ancestor" part in option 2 should be struck out; ancestors are only a small subset of the kinds of agents posthumans might want to simulate that would be more primitive than posthumans.)

Comment author: CarlShulman 04 October 2011 10:00:48PM 2 points [-]

Aka the "Simulation Hypothesis."

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