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PhilGoetz comments on Pascal's wager re-examined - Less Wrong
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This is a good counter-argument. I expect from my experience observing humans that players are more likely to play war leaders. However, we don't see immortal war-leaders. So, if our God wants a persistent identity throughout the game, we're limited in what that identity could be. This observation is stronger than our priors about what roles God would want to play.
Many (probably most) games with character avatars do have defeat/death conditions, so I don't see how this affects the probability in question.
You've not listed this criterion in your sequence of conditional probabilities. It ought be something P(single persistent identity|ego, ent, sim, Earth) - and then we could debate P(chr0|single persistent identity, ego, ent, sim, Earth)
Also Jesus Christ wasn't immortal either, the fact he died is part of the core points of Christianity.
"... I got better"
Or they're playing Nethack.