Apply your knowledge: pick half a number

NPR's Planet Money is running an experiment which could be an interesting way to test your other-people-modeling skills.

This is a guessing game. To play, pick a number between 0 and 100. The goal is to pick the number that's closest to half the average of all guesses.

The other people guessing are self-selected, I would assume primarily NPR listeners.

NPR's Planet Money is running an experiment which could be an interesting way to test your other-people-modeling skills.

This is a guessing game. To play, pick a number between 0 and 100. The goal is to pick the number that's closest to half the average of all guesses.

The other people guessing are self-selected, I would assume primarily NPR listeners.

My estimate:

Lets say 40% of the people are going to do a naive estimate of 25 based on half of the average of random guesses between 1-100
Lets say 20% recurse one level and guess 12.5
Lets say 15% think they're clever and guess super low like 0/.5/1
Lets say 15% of people are going to be anchored to 40 and guess 20.
And lets say the remaining 10% just guess more or less randomly, the average being 50

This results in an 'average' guess of ~20.5, half of which is 10.25. I actually guessed 10.5 as I used slightly different estimates.

Of course, had I known this was posted on LW, I'd have used higher probabilities of low guesses.

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