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PhilGoetz comments on Freewill vs. Determinism - Less Wrong
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On one hand, free will appears to require determinism, for the reasons you give. On the other hand, this interpretation requires a significant re-interpretation of what "free will" means, that is incompatible with what most people think it means. Accepting the determinism-compatible definition of free will probably has non-obvious consequences.
The difficulty of seeing the determinist view of free will, of understanding timeless decision theory, and understanding what an algorithm feels like from the inside, are all basically the same difficulty. They are all non-trivial.
I disagree with this. I think most people don't really think about what free will means, but once they think about it they concede that it must mean your personality decides stuff, and NOT that you're necessarily unpredictable.