1001 PredictionBook Nights

gwern

I explain what I've learned from creating and judging thousands of predictions on personal and real-world matters: the challenges of maintenance, the limitations of prediction markets, the interesting applications to my other essays, skepticism about pundits and unreflective persons' opinions, my own biases like optimism & planning fallacy, 3 very useful heuristics/approaches, and the costs of these activities in general.

Plus an extremely geeky parody of Fate/Stay Night.

This essay exists as a large section of my page on predictions markets on gwern.net: http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets#1001-predictionbook-nights

I explain what I've learned from creating and judging thousands of predictions on personal and real-world matters: the challenges of maintenance, the limitations of prediction markets, the interesting applications to my other essays, skepticism about pundits and unreflective persons' opinions, my own biases like optimism & planning fallacy, 3 very useful heuristics/approaches, and the costs of these activities in general.

Plus an extremely geeky parody of Fate/Stay Night.

This essay exists as a large section of my page on predictions markets on gwern.net: http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets#1001-predictionbook-nights

In particular, one should be skeptical of having lots of people who consistently do worse than average.

I think, though, that it would, in fact, be worthwhile to do the analysis combining 2008 and 2010. I think Paul Krugman had already started panicking by then.

More interesting might be to see how much data it takes for prediction markets to beat most/all pundits.

I would expect Krugman to suffer penalties over the last few years; I don't read him very much, but he seems to have gotten much more partisan and inaccurate as time passes.

0wedrifid15y

Outliers? That's actually what I would expect. People with superior prediction skills can become significantly positive. The same people could use their information backwards to become significantly negative but it is damn hard to reliably lose to a vaguely efficient market significantly if you are stupid (or uninformed).

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