gwern comments on 1001 PredictionBook Nights - Less Wrong

51 Post author: gwern 08 October 2011 04:04PM

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Comment author: Will_Sawin 11 October 2011 04:41:33AM 2 points [-]

In particular, one should be skeptical of having lots of people who consistently do worse than average.

I think, though, that it would, in fact, be worthwhile to do the analysis combining 2008 and 2010. I think Paul Krugman had already started panicking by then.

More interesting might be to see how much data it takes for prediction markets to beat most/all pundits.

Comment author: gwern 11 October 2011 08:13:35PM 4 points [-]

I would expect Krugman to suffer penalties over the last few years; I don't read him very much, but he seems to have gotten much more partisan and inaccurate as time passes.