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paper-machine comments on 1001 PredictionBook Nights - Less Wrong
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Comments (49)
Yes, I remember that study - it wasn't as long term as I would like, and I always wonder about the quality of a study conducted by students, but it was interesting anyway.
The last time I cited this study, I remember that their sample size was well under thirty for each of their pundits. At that level, what's the point of statistics?
If the effect size is large enough, 30 observations is plenty & enough to do stats on. Go through a power calculation sometime with, say, d=0.7.