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Eugine_Nier comments on 1001 PredictionBook Nights - Less Wrong
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Also I notice there are many sets of predictions of the the form X will happen in 1 month/2 months/1 year/... with a separate prediction for each time period. How are these scored? Since these types of predictions are highly correlated scoring them individually can cause people to appear over or under confident.
Is there any reason to think the sets won't balance out eventually?
The will, for very large values of eventually.