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JoshuaZ comments on 1001 PredictionBook Nights - Less Wrong
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Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011: 11% chance
Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012: 15% chance
Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013: 5% chance
This was found here at 07:45, 10/18/2011.
Yes, that's pretty amusing. On the other hand, remember that the further in the future a contract is, the more mispriced you can expect it to be - Intrade does not pay interest or otherwise compensate you for opportunity cost. (I believe this was covered in one of the footnotes.)