I explain what I've learned from creating and judging thousands of predictions on personal and real-world matters: the challenges of maintenance, the limitations of prediction markets, the interesting applications to my other essays, skepticism about pundits and unreflective persons' opinions, my own biases like optimism & planning fallacy, 3 very useful heuristics/approaches, and the costs of these activities in general.
Plus an extremely geeky parody of Fate/Stay Night.
This essay exists as a large section of my page on predictions markets on gwern.net
: http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets#1001-predictionbook-nights
Yes, that's pretty amusing. On the other hand, remember that the further in the future a contract is, the more mispriced you can expect it to be - Intrade does not pay interest or otherwise compensate you for opportunity cost. (I believe this was covered in one of the footnotes.)