gwern comments on 1001 PredictionBook Nights - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (49)
Yes, that's pretty amusing. On the other hand, remember that the further in the future a contract is, the more mispriced you can expect it to be - Intrade does not pay interest or otherwise compensate you for opportunity cost. (I believe this was covered in one of the footnotes.)