I explain what I've learned from creating and judging thousands of predictions on personal and real-world matters: the challenges of maintenance, the limitations of prediction markets, the interesting applications to my other essays, skepticism about pundits and unreflective persons' opinions, my own biases like optimism & planning fallacy, 3 very useful heuristics/approaches, and the costs of these activities in general.
Plus an extremely geeky parody of Fate/Stay Night.
This essay exists as a large section of my page on predictions markets on gwern.net
: http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets#1001-predictionbook-nights
1514 public predictions? Gwern, you don't just have more courage than I have. You have orders of magnitude more courage than I have.
I'm actually up to 1889 as of tonight.
I'm a lot more comfortable doing it because now I have evidence I'm actually pretty decent at it. (For example, on Good Judgement Project, I finished the year 50 out of the 206 in my specific group, despite typoing at least 1 entry.)