gjm comments on 1001 PredictionBook Nights - Less Wrong

51 Post author: gwern 08 October 2011 04:04PM

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Comment author: Eugine_Nier 12 October 2011 03:23:06AM 3 points [-]

True, of course in Krugman's case I suspect most of his predictions amounted to predicting that the financial crisis was going to be really but, and thus were also correlated.

Comment author: gjm 20 April 2012 09:37:40AM 4 points [-]

Another LW discussion of Krugman's alleged accuracy pointed both here and to a spreadsheet with the actual predictions. About half of his predictions did indeed amount to saying that the financial crisis was going to be really bad. There were some political ones too but they weren't of the "my team will win" form, and he did well on those as well.