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lukeprog comments on Applying Bayesian Analysis to History (post idea) - Less Wrong
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Connecting grouchymusicologist's comment, Carrier showed his work on Bayes' Theorem for historians to C. Behan McCullagh and McCullagh responded well to it. (McCullagh has thus far not used a Bayesian approach to historical method.)
I had lunch with Carrier recently and his first of two books on Bayes' Theorem for historians is in progress for publication with Prometheus Press.