I find these ideas appealing and interesting, but Miller makes some bizarre claims (like fantasy being a closed genre - maybe I'm reading the wrong stuff?) or Scandinavia being especially individualist (it's the most collectivist place I've ever lived, and the most xenophobic. Denmark has a major political party dedicated to xenophobia.)
Things like this make me more skeptical of his research in general.
like fantasy being a closed genre - maybe I'm reading the wrong stuff?
I don't know what objective data you expect him or me to point to, but I agree with him on this one. Fantasy is, by and large, hidden authoritarianism and other 'closed' social structures; from the overt medievalisms and Great Chains of Being to the hereditary succession of power to the straight fascist allegories. Not that SF is perfect either, but it tends to be much better and more challenging, especially towards the harder end of things - I don't know any equivalent classification for fantasy.
I have heard of such a thing as "hard fantasy", but it's a very small niche and seems to be running on crossover appeal to hard SF fans as much as anything else. As best I can tell, readers of fantasy valuing high Openness have instead migrated to the New Weird subgenre (exemplified by China Miéville, Mike Mignola, etc.); epic and heroic fantasy aren't as hidebound as they were before the mid-1990s, but they're still a highly stereotyped body of writing.
(I think using The Iron Dream as an example is a little disingenuous, though; it's essentially an essay in novel form about the parallels between fascist mythology and heroic fantasy of the pulp tradition. Using it to demonstrate the same seems to assume its conclusion.)
In developed countries, we have less to fear from infectious parasites, but much more to fear from infectious memes. So, instead of opening our bodies to ambient germs, we open our minds to ambient culture, to determine if we can stay sane throughout the onslaught. When you see teenagers and young adults posting their interests in music, books, and film on their MySpace websites, consider the costly signaling principles at work. If they have exposed themselves to a lot of death metal, Chuck Palahniuk, and David Lynch, and they are still sane enough to sustain a reasonable conversation through email or instant messaging, they have credibly proven their openness and psychosis-resistance
I find it rather hard to believe that an unconscious social mechanism for showcasing resilience to infectious diseases would control our responses to memetic influences. Sure, they propagate in an analogous manner, but the actual mechanisms are completely different, and demonstrating resilience against foreign memes to show reproductive fitness doesn't sound like something humans would have done in the ancestral environment. It strikes me as implausible that our unconscious would associate them.
He notes a correlation between xenophobia and self rated disease susceptibility, and an increase in xenophobia in the first trimester of pregnancy, but contact with outsiders is actually associated with increased risk of disease. If the body of research he's drawing on has indicated a general decrease in openness under these conditions, including metrics he's referenced earlier such as interest in science fiction or indie music, then he hasn't made that clear.
My inner Hanson asks me
So you've got a case of the Inner Hanson, eh? My estimation of your psychological fortitude is hereby incremented.
"When you see teenagers and young adults posting their interests in music, books, and film on their MySpace websites, consider the costly signaling principles at work."
Wait, what? What's costly about posting something to Myspace? The "costly" part of "costly signaling" has a rather precise meaning in evolutionary biology: an extravagant expenditure of scarce resources, useful because potential mates who correctly interpret that as entailing your high fitness thereby improve their own. Stotting is a typical example.
Here it seems to me that the author is just throwing scientific-sounding lingo around to bolster pure speculation. Taboo "costly signaling" and the author is saying: "the genes of girls who picked boys who spouted weird antisocial nonsense fared better, because only boys whose splendid health allowed them to pick up such nonsense in the first place would do that".
I'm unconvinced: stripped of the highfalutin' language this makes much less sense. Even if I try to repair the argument by bringing the parasite connection back in: "oh, this boy is quoting David Lynch, cue some social module which infers that he must have...
More abstractly, "costly signaling" theory requires that it should be hard for low-fitness individuals to send a fake signal. Clearly this isn't the case here - anyone can pretend to spout weird antisocial nonsense.
I disagree; I think this is an excellent use of the handicap principle (though it remains to be seen whether it's actually true). Any gazelle can go stotting, too, if by "can" you mean "it is physically possible for them to do so". But only a gazelle very confident in its speed actually will, because all the other gazelles are too worried about being eaten by lions to dare to try it.
Likewise, anyone can claim to like weird foreign films on MySpace, but only a person very confident in her popularity actually will, because all the other people are too worried about being shunned.
The number one objection I have to this idea isn't that it's not evolutionarily plausible, but that it doesn't fit observed data: it's not the high school quarterbacks and cheerleaders who are liking weird foreign films, it's kinda weird people who aren't popular anyway: anime is the most obvious example. Any further argument for this idea would have to explain why it goes so terribly wrong.
Two points:
1) I wonder if Lonely Dissent is relevant here--people who are more open will sometimes use their openness to gain status in the (smaller) community of open people, lowering their status in the (larger) community of less open people in the process. That would certainly explain a lot of contrarian behavior.
2) The introduction of Spent is fascinatingly Hansonian. Thanks for the link!
If higher IQ is almost always better, why the bell curve? Short people persist because height can have costs.
It's not hard to find evidence that IQ can be fitness reducing.
This is interesting, but as has been pointed out, it suffers from some extreme reliance on a rather tenuous analogy between infectious diseases and infectious memes. I think it hard to overstate how dubious and dishonest (either recklessly or negligently) this claim is. Diseases and memes are just not even close to the same thing in an evolutionary sense. There's no reason to think that mechanisms that have evolved to prevent disease infection would have any effect on meme promulgation. Even if a meme spreads "like malaria," that doesn't mean that if you have one-half of the sickle cell gene, you'll be immune to it. As other commenters have pointed out, the followup to this only gets worse - the kids who signal openness tend to be the kids who are unpopular and thus have no actual cost of signaling such.
But worse, the underlying evolutionary theory behind this seems pretty dubious. Yes, there's a correlation. That's only modest evidence. There doesn't appear to be a clear connection between the openness psychological trait and interacting with outside tribes thousands of years ago, unless such evidence simply wasn't quoted. Also, the effects of infection would tend to operate on a larger scale than the individual; I don't know if this theory would require group selection, but it wouldn't surprise me if it does to some extent. I'm not saying it's wrong, but it seems extremely carefully tailored and post hoc, and so should be at least suspicious. Piling on the dubious analogy makes this whole point pretty poorly supported.
The title had me captivated. However:
This post could use some more exposition in between the quotes. When "parasite load" was mentioned, my immediate assumption was that this was a metaphorical usage referring to "parasitic" ideas or memes, and was quite confused when I encountered a discussion of skin infections and whatnot, suggesting that somehow the literal sense of biological parasites was intended. This was confusing because I wasn't expecting any connection between psychological personality traits such as openness on the one hand and susceptibility to infectious disease on the other. Maybe such a connection is well-known in some circles, but I was totally unprepared for it and it came across to me as a bizarrely privileged hypothesis. Some more emphatic exposition, saying in effect "yes reader, I really do intend to relate the personality trait of openness to the medical phenomenon of infectious diseases" would have been helpful.
Parasites and infections are really important in evolution; this is maybe not what is most popularly discussed in articles or news, but I'm pretty sure that it is covered in longer works on evolutionary biology like The Selfish Gene. For example, one of the major justifications for the invention of sex (!) is parasite resistance; see Wikipedia on the Red Queen Hypothesis or http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-07/uocp-pmh070609.php
In fact, I was probably even more irritated by the Wikipedia article than the post.
Your irritations should be correlated, since gwern is the author of that abrupt addition to the WP article as well as of the above post.
Alternate explanation for openness being lower in regions with high parasite loads-- openness is more costly in terms of energy, and people with high parasite loads have less to spare. I don't know how you'd test that.
As for having had some mistaken beliefs as a result of a high openness level, you take your chances. Have you had unconventional beliefs which turned out to have good evidence for them?
This discussion hinges on the "level of openness" being a big deal and a common factor explanatory of many different things. I think the first step should be making a case for this concept being useful, rather than a salient but fuzzy label that one likes to attribute and then rationalize as having explanatory power.
You want me to explain, cite, and defend the entire Big Five model with its factorization and the predictive powers thereof?
I'm sorry, I'm not going to do that. The goal of this article was to discuss some research leading to what I considered interesting speculation and questions. I linked to Wikipedia for the massive background such a veiled question wants (or you could read the rest of the book these short extracts were from, whose fulltext I also linked for readers such as you).
I think you are laboring under a slight misapprehension about personality research. Myers-Briggs isn't solid science. The eneagram isn't solid science. Astrological personality models aren't solid science. I think you have correctly noticed that "psychological traits" are a ripe area for epistemically unsound belief systems that appear to bear on something people hold near and dear (ie understanding other people) so you're justifiably suspicious of a mention of personality, which is laudable.
But you're asking for a defense of "all that crazy stuff", and a good defense of "all that crazy stuff" can't honestly be provided, because most of it really is bunk, or at least it has so much bunk mixed in that its only good for psychoceramic data or maybe to pan for gold that might be hiding in the crazy. The big five personality model is an attempt to do actual science in the same space in order to produce reasonably valid and reliable dimensions of human "personality" variation. The point of the big five is that there is solid research and a deep literature and so on, in contrast to all the crackpot stuff.
If someone uses the big five and you're...
Lack of universality isn't a problem if you understand that the concepts are tricky to use for inference and should regularly, step-by-step, be checked against reality to make sure you're still tracking reality. For example, Openness may actually be the most heritable trait in populations where twin studies were done despite being the least likely to be a human universal (recent mean heritabilities: Openness=57%, Extraversion=54%, Conscientiousness=49%, Neuroticism=48%, Agreeableness=42%).
But if we're talking about something that is "not a fixed-at-birth sort of trait" then lack of heritability is one of the things I would have naively expected of the trait, you know? Its hard to shoot from the hip in this area -- the terminology is stable and meaningful, and there is a relatively deep literature, but each new claim will require confirmation by experiment to extend your conclusions with any kind of rigor.
Water and milkshakes are both "arrangements of drinkable matter" and I can buy both sorts of matter in a cup at a fast food restaurant in the US. I can also expect to find water on Europa... but if I tried to use the fact that water and mllkshake were both ...
You're right, of course, but the case has already been made in just about every freshman psychology textbook.
It is reasonable to assume that an educated member of the general public will be familiar with the Big Five personality traits, and that a typical LW reader will have noted and remembered the Big Five as one of a handful of psychological 'findings' that actually do have demonstrable explanatory power. There is moderately compelling evidence that they are, e.g., heritable, that they can be affected by drugs, that they correlate strongly across cultures, years, and survey versions, and that they can be used to prospectively predict various mental disorders and success rates. The Wikipedia article http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits does a reasonably good job of documenting this. The Big Five are also the lead feature in Chapter 2 of "Psychology Applied to Modern Life," (10th ed.), which I believe has been strongly recommended on LW before.
No doubt you meant well, but by suggesting that gwern used a "fuzzy label that one likes to attribute and then rationalize as having explanatory power," you also suggest that gwern is indulging in sloppy mental habits and that gwern's article lacks an appropriate foundation. Neither suggestion is really fair; the Big Five personality theory is so well-established that there is nothing improper, even among us skeptics, about relying on it and building on it to make a series of interesting points.
by suggesting that gwern used a "fuzzy label that one likes to attribute and then rationalize as having explanatory power," you also suggest that gwern is indulging in sloppy mental habits
This shouldn't be a problem, I believe. To the extent it becomes objectionable to doubt anyone's sanity without a solid case, we are losing ability to guard against error. It should be a routine matter, like washing your hands.
I think Bryan Caplan talks about the Big Five some and is usually pretty clear thinking. He has a paper on the topic which gives some references for correlations between the Big Five and other things. For example:
A particularly noteworthy aspect of the Conscientiousness - job performance link is that Conscientiousness is highly correlated (.5 to .6) with various measures of educational achievement but uncorrelated with measured intelligence. (Barrick and Mount 1991, p.5) Conscientious people are more successful in both school and work. In consequence, rate of return to education estimates that fail to control for Conscientiousness are likely to be biased upwards.
And
Criminals are on average markedly lower in both Conscientiousness and Agreeableness than non-criminals, even holding other variables fixed.1 (Costa and Widiger 1994; Wilson and Herrnstein 1985)
I'd be interested in hearing if you find interesting results.
The first year I spent time reading Less Wrong, I had to deliberately pull back and carefully moderate my time on Less Wrong because I saw the signs that it was affecting my mental stability. A large component of this was the new ideas, but also culture shock and another large component was getting used to the strange social interaction -- the drawn-out timescale and the feel of an anonymous, infinite audience is quite different in comment threads than anything I'd been used to.
When I first started writing comments, I wanted to train myself to speak more bravely, but I actually grew more sensitive before growing more brave. Now, probably a good 2-3 years later, my interaction with Less Wrong feels more or less 'normal' and the probability of instability is much lower. I got over my culture shock ...
I am a little troubled because as a child I was interested in such alternative things and the Occult as well
Children have very little resistance to this sort of thing. I doubt it's a good indicator of anything except your openness - not, say, high schizotypy.
Re: parasite load and xenophobia/lack of Openness: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/12/111201174227.htm
What I'm hearing: in the ancestral environment/memetic isomorph I'm the guy who flay himself alive and then try to wrestle a Komodo dragon and a Tasmanian devil at the same time. In the middle of a plague. After not eating anything for half a year.
Sure, I managed to prove myself pretty insanely sturdy and fit by even finding those in the same place, especially after bleeding that much, but the whole having no skin and getting eaten by a giant lizard sort of ruins the point.
EDIT: "while on fire" should be in there somewhere to.
Evolutionary psychologist Geoffrey Miller recently published Spent: Sex, Evolution, and Consumer Behavior, a book on signaling, psychology, and consumerism. It's very up LW's alley - it reads almost as if Robin Hanson had written a book. (Actually, Hanson has never published a book, has he? Has anyone ever seen them in the same place? Hm...)
Sam Synder has written an overview/summary of the book, which I can attest hits many of the interesting points. (I would also praise the pervasive humor, which kept it readable and furnish many good examples of the 'reversal test', and the exercises at the end of the book.)
Some of the most interesting chapters to me were the ones dealing with Openness, which one will remember was recently shown may be changeable by psychedelics - possibly the first such tweakable member of the Big Five, leading to the suggestion that it may be worth considering changing it. Hold this thought.
First, Miller discusses the signaling of Openness (starting on page 108 of the PDF, logical page 207):
Why is Openness negative at its extreme? (Miller has remarked before this in Spent that despite what one might think, one of the other 6 psychological traits he covers, IQ, essentially has no bad amount to have - you have to be in the top percentile before IQ starts being a potential negative, and much marketing is covertly appealing to people's desires to look smart.) On the potential biological negatives of novelty-seeking:
Recent research shows something very curious: group Openness inversely correlates with parasite load, even after controlling for all the obvious confounds like health and longevity. (I haven't looked up this research yet; he attributes it to "Corey Fincher and Randy Thornhill at University of New Mexico, and Mark Schaller and Damian Murray at University of British Columbia".)
Incidentally, a good deal of LW's userbase could be described as 'young adults'; and it does seem relatively rare for old people to become transhumanists, as opposed to young or very young people. The next step, some anthropological observations which certainly look as if they are costly signalling something:
The final step - applying this idea to us:
The weak correlation with IQ has the troubling implication - what happens when you are highly Open but not especially intelligent, and you are confronted with memes & products optimized on the free market?
I am a little troubled because as a child I was interested in such alternative things and the Occult as well - I seem to recognize this pattern in myself. My inner Hanson asks me, 'why are you so sure you aren't still mistaken and that you aren't so Open your mind finally fell out?'
A closing link: 'the valley of bad rationality'.