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JesseGalef comments on Overcoming the Curse of Knowledge - Less Wrong
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Inferential distance is an extremely handy phrase. I was actually unaware of it (an example of distance?) until today, but it's definitely related!
(On an off-topic note, this is my first post on LW and my first chance to tell you that I mentioned you in a post I wrote when I found Prediction Book: (This site isn’t new to rationalists: Eliezer and the LessWrong community noticed it a couple years ago, and LessWrong’er Gwern has been using it to – among other things – track inTrade predictions.)
Hopefully most LWers know PBook - it was written and is hosted by LW's hosts TrikeApps.
Interesting post, but one of your commenters was right, I think - at least, I thought I knew all the active PBers, and you don't seem to be one of them.
I'm mostly been using it to track my predictions about the winner of each football game, but have my preferences set to leave predictions private.
As expected, I'm inappropriately confident at most levels of "confidence feeling" except the very high levels, where my accuracy can be more attributed to luck and a small sample size.