I don't much care for either of those predictions. I'm happy to see the communicable disease one so strongly estimated against -- seriously, was a single wager anything other than 99% against? -- but that other one is poorly defined. What is "major" violence, contextually?
To the point of predictions regarding the 'success' of OWS: I don't know, right now, that this is a defineable question. It seems to me that not even the protesters themselves know what it is they want, exactly, besides "making things not suck".
The major violence one has a definition discussed in the comment thread. Anything leading to fatalities is apparently the agreed definition. I agree that the communicable disease one is extremely unlikely and not terribly useful (the highest percentage estimate given by anyone is 3%.)
On reddit today I read 'the-Gandhi-quote' on a post about the Wall Street Occupation Protest:
"First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you.."
I'm transitioning, possibly, from the laughing stage and am beginning to feel the tiniest bit excited that perhaps some actual change is in order. On the one hand, I feel sufficiently skeptical about the probability of a 'revolution'. On the other hand, given how fast the world has been changing (the internet, gloablization), maybe change is inevitable and this is the way it happens now.
I know this is a rationality site, not a current affairs site, but when something tweaks my interest I like to know what "Less Wrong" thinks...waiting for a spontaneous post could take forever and finding a 'rationality-spin' would be disingenuous so I'll just ask:
What is possible and what is likely?
What factors are important?