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JoshuaZ comments on Occupy Wall Street: Predictions, Speculations - Less Wrong
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I don't know. The thread hasn't discussed intentionality. That is probably worth bringing up explicitly there. As to duration and volume- well yes, to a large extent, it is a measure of that. The prediction has a set deadline. So one way of looking at it is predicting certain volume before a specific date.
Ahh. Took a bit of puzzling to figure out where the deadline was -- that "known in 23 days". So really that prediction ought to read "There will be at least one incident of major violence at the Wall Street OWS protest within thirty days." That's a rather significantly different claim than "There will be at least one major outbreak of violence during the Occupy Wall Street protest."
Yes, the website design isn't always great. I generally try to put the deadlines in my predictions but most people don't.