Eugine_Nier comments on Occupy Wall Street: Predictions, Speculations - Less Wrong

-5 Post author: byrnema 19 October 2011 12:44AM

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Comment author: Eugine_Nier 19 October 2011 07:41:30AM *  12 points [-]

I'm transitioning, possibly, from the laughing stage and am beginning to feel the tiniest bit excited that perhaps some actual change is in order.

The next question is "Will this change be for the better?" (And no LW isn't the place to discuss this as applied to OWS.) I'm always amazed at how many people will embrace "change" without asking this question.

On the one hand, I feel sufficiently skeptical about the probability of a 'revolution'.

Keep in mind that from an outside view most revolutions produce a worse government then the one they replace.

Comment author: Vladimir_M 19 October 2011 02:06:57PM 9 points [-]

I'm always amazed at how many people will embrace "change" without asking this question.

And, for that matter, without having any concrete idea at all about what the resulting state of affairs is supposed to be, even under the most optimistic assumptions.

Comment author: Jack 19 October 2011 08:12:03PM 3 points [-]

Keep in mind that from an outside view most revolutions produce a worse government then the one they replace.

Is this true?

Comment author: lessdazed 19 October 2011 08:36:29PM 2 points [-]

I would say yes but only on average because revolutions are made by coalitions of opponents of the regime.

For example, the overthrow of the Shah was achieved through the combined forces of liberals, secular nationalists, conservative Islamists, communists, populist leftist Islamists, etc. Only for one group was it worth it. Likewise in Algeria (where the secular nationalists won), Russia (where the communists won the civil war, and secular nationalists are winning after the fall of communism), etc.

For the group that wins, the revolution can be considered worth it, but many will be disappointed.

Note that I am taking a more subjective approach to this issue than Eugine_Neir did. I think it is fair for an inefficient ramshackle dictatorship to consider their revolution a success if they get to spread their ideology.

Comment author: thomblake 24 October 2011 11:26:21PM 1 point [-]

Keep in mind that from an outside view most revolutions produce a worse government then the one they replace.

If that's actually the case, it's particularly remarkable how much progress we've made over the past 3,000 years or so despite the steady march of worse and worse governance.

Or was there some mechanism other than 'revolution' that you credit with replacing some governments?

Comment author: JoshuaZ 24 October 2011 11:36:17PM 2 points [-]

Some governments have been improved by slow, incremental improvement. Look for example at Great Britain which hasn't had a revolution for hundreds of years but is clearly better off now than it was then. Moreover, even if most revolutions end badly and revolutions are the only way to improve things there will still be a slow tendency to improvement if better governments are slightly less likely to have revolts.

Comment author: thomblake 24 October 2011 11:38:50PM *  1 point [-]

Moreover, even if most revolutions end badly and revolutions are the only way to improve things there will still be a slow tendency to improvement if better governments are slightly less likely to have revolts.

Good point, though depending on the actual figures not necessarily true, especially depending on the starting values.