Keep in mind that from an outside view most revolutions produce a worse government then the one they replace.
If that's actually the case, it's particularly remarkable how much progress we've made over the past 3,000 years or so despite the steady march of worse and worse governance.
Or was there some mechanism other than 'revolution' that you credit with replacing some governments?
Some governments have been improved by slow, incremental improvement. Look for example at Great Britain which hasn't had a revolution for hundreds of years but is clearly better off now than it was then. Moreover, even if most revolutions end badly and revolutions are the only way to improve things there will still be a slow tendency to improvement if better governments are slightly less likely to have revolts.
On reddit today I read 'the-Gandhi-quote' on a post about the Wall Street Occupation Protest:
"First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you.."
I'm transitioning, possibly, from the laughing stage and am beginning to feel the tiniest bit excited that perhaps some actual change is in order. On the one hand, I feel sufficiently skeptical about the probability of a 'revolution'. On the other hand, given how fast the world has been changing (the internet, gloablization), maybe change is inevitable and this is the way it happens now.
I know this is a rationality site, not a current affairs site, but when something tweaks my interest I like to know what "Less Wrong" thinks...waiting for a spontaneous post could take forever and finding a 'rationality-spin' would be disingenuous so I'll just ask:
What is possible and what is likely?
What factors are important?