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Desrtopa comments on Amanda Knox: post mortem - Less Wrong
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Comments (483)
I'm not sure that's the way to put it, but let me ask you this: How much stock do you put in the unsupported assertion of an anonymous person on the internet?
Please quote me where I made that assertion.
Well I need to be decent at a minimum. But basically yeah. I assess cases day in and day out. That's a huge advantage. I know that I'm much better than I was 15 years ago, even though I was just as smart then as I am now.
Sure, getting this kind of feedback is a good way to improve one's judgment. Do you seriously disagree?
:shrug: I agree, but employment is sadly not the only motivator for self-deception. Let me ask you this:
Do you agree that the tone of your post is a bit nasty?
To the extent that you don't think that you're more reliable than those people, you're engaging in a treatment of evidence that is simply wrong. The fact of someone's belief is evidence weighted according to the reliability of their mechanisms for establishing belief. That's the principle behind Aumann's Agreement Theorem.
I'm not sure I understand your point. My belief that I have superior judgment in this area is based on actual knowledge about myself and my experiences. "Faith" implies that there is no such basis.
I don't recall claiming or implying that I was basing my assessment on "faith," but I could be wrong. Which is why I am giving loqi a chance to back up his statement.
But not knowledge of the other commenters and their experiences, whom you seem to have lumped into the reference class of "anonymous internet commenters," which you assign a low assessment of competence.
If you want to find a lot of people with significant expertise in rendering judgment under uncertainty, I think this is a pretty good place to look.
If "have faith" is changed to "believe" everyone here should agree.