Over the summer, Eliezer suggested (approximately, I am repeating this from memory) the following method for making an important decision:

1. write down a list of all of the relevant facts on either side of the argument.
2. assign numerical weights to each of the facts, according to how much they point you in one direction or another.
3. burn the piece of paper on which you wrote down the facts, and go with your gut.

This was essentially the method I used in coming to my (probably slightly low) estimate of the probability that Knox and Sollecito were innocent. It just felt like they were innocent, and I saw essentially no reason to suspect they were guilty. I will note that the 'pro-guilt' site that komponisto linked to was just horribly devoid of anything that I might consider evidence (if anything, that site did more to convince me of Knox's innocence than the pro-innocence site), and I did spend probably about 10 minute trying to find some evidence that they had missed, but completely failed.

On a different not, as I said at the time, 0.95 and 0.05 were just proxies for "pretty damn sure" and "pretty damned unlikely" - I have very little idea what 5% probability feels like, and I'm sure that if arbitrary scientific convention had settled on some different number for significance, I'd have picked that one instead. I have made some progress since a year ago on calibrating my estimates of small probabilities, but I absolutely do not think that I would be wrong approximately 1 time in 20 when making predictions to which I assign a probability of 0.95.