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komponisto comments on Amanda Knox: post mortem - Less Wrong
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So it sounds like you're saying we do have the "if". But are you sure the number is not just unacceptably high because in any realistic example of a 13% innocent population of convicts, many of them would have to have been seen as having substantially greater than 13% chances of innocence? If not for some biasing effect like that, it's hard for me to see why the moral question would suddenly be clear once it was stated in population frequencies rather than in individual probabilities.
Actually, no, because the equivalence of the two formulations is obvious to me.
But it might not be for everyone; it's well known that many people find thinking in terms of frequencies more intuitive than thinking in terms of bare probabilities. For such people, a statement about probabilities may simply not have any moral force unless and until it is translated into a statement about frequencies.