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PhilGoetz comments on Amanda Knox: post mortem - Less Wrong
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Neat! It appears the shared version is writable. How can I make a copy of a Google doc, so I can mess around with it myself? I entered this into OpenOffice, and it also gave me a slope of -.02, an intercept of .4, and an R-squared of .02. Weird that the R-squared is so low, since 8 people with log(karma) < .7 gave p > .5, and no people with log(karma) > .7 did.
Also, Eliezer gave p=.15, and that doesn't appear on the graph.
No he didn't.
Left Eliezer off since we don't have a firm probability for him and his karma is a huge outlier.
There is a copy option under the file tab. You're welcome to add to mine though.
For users with Ln(karma) > 7 no answer was > 0.5. But within that range people were about as attracted to 0.5 as they were to 0.01. For further investigation I'd want like to see residuals and the log10 of the prediction.