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dlthomas comments on Amanda Knox: post mortem - Less Wrong
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I don't have an intuitive feeling for d20s, but it occurs to me that a useful resource might be a list of day to day events of certain probabilities so we can calibrate our intuitions to them.
Googling hasn't found me anything useful, could anyone give an example of an normal event that has a 5% chance of occuring?
It's somewhere between the chance of flipping 4 successive heads and the chance of flipping 5 successive heads with a fair coin.