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ArisKatsaris comments on HPMoR: What do you think you know? - Less Wrong
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I think you're underestimating how guessable things can be if one pays attention to clues. I can't remember for sure, but I think the possibility was in my mind since I first read the note about how Harry should have noticed his confusion about the story.
The list of evidence I gave in favour of that position in a Hatrack forum discussion back in November 2010 was simply that
a) We're told that Harry should have noticed something off about the story, but he didn't (simplest thing he should have noticed is: how the hell do people know what Voldemort tried to do, if there were no living witnesses)
b) Avada Kedavra normally leaves no mark on the victim. Whatever was done on Harry left a lightning-shaped scar.
c) Avada Kedavra kills anything with a brain and never rebounds. This time it's supposed to have failed to kill Harry and to have rebounded onto Voldemort.
All of these were well known before chapter 43.
Since then we can add the evidence of:
d) Bellatrix indicated she was given Voldemort's wand before Voldemort went to the Potters' home -- simplest explanation was that Voldemort didn't want his wand taken away by Aurors when his physical form was destroyed, and so he knew his physical form would be destroyed.
e) Lucius Malfoy seemed to believe Voldemort resides inside Harry's body, which is a rather odd conclusion to arrive at, unless he already has reason to suspect Voldemort wasn't attempting to kill Harry.
These pieces of evidence are not in chapter 43 either.
What evidence are you talking about that's in chapter 43?
Were you aware, at the time you made the prediction, that
I most definitely knew them. I've read the whole series, and even written HP (meta-)fanfic and ficlets in the past.
However in the canon it is NOT implied that the story doesn't make sense. In HPMoR it is strongly implied that it not only doesn't make sense, but also that Harry should have noticed that it doesn't make sense -- therefore the elements that don't make sense are elements Harry had been told of.
In brief:
In canon the story of Voldemort's attack doesn't make sense, but it was meant to make sense.
In HPMoR the story of Voldemort's attack doesn't make sense, and it is not meant to make sense.
I guess I'm too used to fanfics that pick holes in the story in what I perceive as an uncharitable manner (my thoughts usually go something like "in the LCPW, black-box wards that detect and record all magic performed in a house are common knowledge"). But upon reflection, you're right - if there were a reasonable explanation, Harry's failing to be confused wouldn't have been treated as such a big deal in the narration.
Minor nitpick, although Avada Kedavra is used in canon to kill non-humans I don' think t "anything with a brain" is ever specified in canon.
The mock offer he made to Lily is not funny. It's the kind of kick the dog thing authors write when they want to make you dislike the villain. Eliezer is better than that. What made it laughworthy for Voldemort was the delicious irony of Lily offering her life in exchange of a life that would not have been taken to begin with. From this it was clear he knew the whole prophecy and that Snape heard the whole thing. Took me some time to figure out why it's different from canon, though of course that should have been clear too. Snape is no fool. And the outcome of his no-fool-ness has been known by than.
About your list, I think the failed-notice thing in ch 3 is simply the 'strikes directly at the soul' and 'leaving only the burnt hulk of his body' thing. Also I doubt Voldemort would share his plans with Lucius.
But, yeah, plenty of clues.