John_Maxwell_IV comments on Fundamentals of kicking anthropic butt - Less Wrong

18 Post author: Manfred 26 March 2012 06:43AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (60)

Sort By: Best

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: loup-vaillant 26 March 2012 02:37:56PM * 2 points [-]

Sleeping Beauty can consistently say, […]

Consistently? Sorry, I can't even parse the sentence that follows. Trying to understand it:

"this event"

Could you mean "the fact that I just woke up from drugged induced sleep"? But this event is not correlated with the coin flip to begin with. (Whether it ends up head or tail, you will wake up seemingly for the first time.)
"The probability of the coinflip having come up tails is 1/2."

Whose probability?

Also, how my solution could lead Sleeping Beauty to be Dutch-booked? Could you provide an example, please?

Comment author: John_Maxwell_IV 26 March 2012 11:58:26PM 0 points [-]

Also, how my solution could lead Sleeping Beauty to be Dutch-booked? Could you provide an example, please?

My hunch is that any solution other than yours allows her to be Dutch-booked...

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 27 March 2012 05:21:23AM 0 points [-]

Not after correction for payout matrix, as described...