prase comments on Value of Information: Four Examples - Less Wrong

76 Post author: Vaniver 22 November 2011 11:02PM

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Comment author: prase 25 November 2011 01:05:40PM 0 points [-]

Your expected profit is $24p-12, where p is the probability the coin lands gum down. This is a good deal if p>.5, but a bad deal if p<.5.

You surely wanted 0.3333, not 0.5.

Comment author: twanvl 25 November 2011 01:42:07PM 1 point [-]

No, 24*0.5 - 12 = 0 is the break even point where the expected profit is 0. For p>0.5 the deal is good, for p<0.5 the deal is bad.

Comment author: prase 26 November 2011 12:44:49AM 0 points [-]

I have read it as if the offered deal was $24 and $12 back in case of winning and ignored the equation. Thanks for correction.