Romashka comments on Value of Information: Four Examples - Less Wrong

76 Post author: Vaniver 22 November 2011 11:02PM

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Comment author: Romashka 23 September 2016 11:41:10AM 0 points [-]

Okay, VoI aside, how would you bet in the following setup:

There are three 5 copecks coins, randomly chosen. Each one is dropped 20 times (A0, B0, C0). Then a piece of gum is attached to the heads of Coin A (AGH) & it is dropped 20 times; to the tails of Coin A (AGT); to the heads (BGH) or tails (BGT) of Coin B, & to the tails of Coin C (CGT). Coin C is dropped three times, and the gum attached to the side which appeared two of them. Then, Coin C is dropped twenty times (CGX). The numbers are as follows: A0: heads 14/20, AGT heads 10/20, AGH heads 7/20. B0: heads 8/20, BGT heads 8/20, BGH heads 8/20 (I guess I need to hoard this one.) C0: heads 10/20, CGT heads 11/20, CGX heads 14/20. To what side of Coin C was gum applied in CGX?