shminux comments on Let Your Workers Gather Food - Less Wrong
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Just to match your awesome map to our mundane territory... So, how come no one we know has gone FOOM in the sense you describe yet? Not even any of the top 3 or 4 contributors to this site, let alone "any average LWer who committed themselves to this, and only this, for a year."
The territory rarely lies, so something must be wrong with your map.
Upon further thought I've decided I don't actually believe that. You're right.
I do think that's possible, but it would take more time. 10 years seems reasonable.
I don't think anyone has foomed yet because nobody has "committed themselves to this, and only this". I don't see people committed as completely to improving themselves as, say, the successful Sokushinbutsu were to mummifying themselves, or self-immolators were to burning alive.
From the page on Sokushinbutsu:
What is your justification for this number, other than "too long to test it" or "anything can happen in 10 years"? It seems just as arbitrary as the previous one.
Both statements point toward the No true Scotsman fallacy. Your test of "committed themselves to this, and only this" is not a useful one, unless you are willing to clarify it. Does "only this" exclude drinking water? eating? talking to other people? writing LW posts? It is way too easy to move the goalposts to retain your vague assertion.