It is a deductive fact that no other scoring rule could possibly give: Score(P(A|B)) + Score(P(B)) = Score(P(A&B))
What assumptions are you using here? In the simplest form this is obviously false. Simply let the Score function always be zero. Moreover, any Score function that satisfies this identity can be scaled by any number and still satisfy it. So not only does your log work but a log to any other base will work. Also if I believe in the axiom of choice (I think I need choice here to get a transcendence basis. Can someone more foundationally oriented comment if this is correct?), then there is a function f on the positive reals such that f(ab)=f(a)+f(b) and f(x) is not equal to a constant times log x. So one could just as well use that f as your score function.
I think your statement is true if you want your score function to be continuous and normalized so that one has Score(1/2)= -1.
On a completely different note, the repeated references to the Sequences come off as a bit off. You assume a high degree of detailed familiarity with the various essays that is unjustified. For example, the quote from the Twelve Virtues sounded familiar, but I almost certainly would not have been able to place it. Moreover, the way these quotes are used almost feels like you are quoting religious proof texts or writing a highschool English essay rather than actually using them in a useful way.
For example, the quote from the Twelve Virtues sounded familiar, but I almost certainly would not have been able to place it.
Twelve virtues is really popular, that's why I wrote that. I'll take it out if it's distracting. (done and done)
Moreover, the way these quotes are used almost feels like you are quoting religious proof texts or writing a highschool English essay rather than actually using them in a useful way.
I was actually disagreeing with them, you understand this right. If not let me know, cause that's important for my readers to get off th...
Edit: Looking back at this a few years later. It is pretty embarrassing, but I'm going to leave it up.
Why don't we start treating the log2 of the probability — conditional on every available piece of information — you assign to the great conjunction, as the best measure of your epistemic success? Let's call: log_2(P(the great conjunction|your available information)), your "Bayesian competence". It is a deductive fact that no other proper scoring rule could possibly give: Score(P(A|B)) + Score(P(B)) = Score(P(A&B)), and obviously, you should get the same score for assigning P(A|B) to A, after observing B, and assigning P(B) to B a priori, as you would get for assigning P(A&B) to A&B a priori. The great conjunction is the conjunction of all true statements expressible in your idiolect. Your available information may be treated as the ordered set of your retained stimulus.
If this doesn't make sense, or you aren't familiar with these ideas, checkout Technical Explanation after checking out Intuitive Explanation.
It is standard LW doctrine that we should not name the highest value of rationality, and it is often defended quite brilliantly:
and of course also:
These quotes are from the end of Twelve Virtues
Should we really be wondering if there's a virtue higher than bayesian competence? Is there really a probability worth worrying about that the description of bayesian competence above is misunderstood? Is the description not simple enough to be mathematical? What mistake might I discover in my understanding of bayesian competence by comparing it to that which I did not name, after I've already given a proof that bayesian competence is proper, and that the restrictions: score(P(B)*P(A|B)) = score(P(B)) + score(P(A|B)), and: must be a proper scoring rule, uniquely specify Logb?
I really want answers to these questions. I am still undecided about them; and change my mind about them far too often.
Of course, your bayesian competence is ridiculously difficult to compute. But I am not proposing the measure for practical reasons. I am proposing the measure to demonstrate that degree of rationality is an objective quantity that you could compute given the source code to the universe, even though there are likely no variables in the source that ever take on this value. This may be of little to no value to the most obsessively pragmatic practitioners of rationality. But it would be a very interesting result to philosophers of science and rationality.
Updated to better express view of author, and take feedback into account. Apologies to any commenter who's comment may have been nullified.
The comment below:
has changed my mind about the openness of the questions I asked.