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lessdazed comments on 5 Second Level: Substituting the Question - Less Wrong
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How popular will the President be in six months?
Not very.
"Am I actually answering the question?" "No, because actually answering it requires knowledge of what the President plans to do in the next six months, how the media is likely to react to what he does in the next six months, some idea of the probability of outside events (terror attack, victory in war, natural disaster) that would influence his popularity, and knowledge of when the elections take place in America, none of which I actually have."
So what question was I answering?
"What have you heard about Obama recently, with extra weight on any sources you remember as American."
This is a bad example because a major error is people taking too much of an inside view.
Good point. As well as "how do I feel about the president?" being the wrong question, historical trends for presidential popularity when entering an election year, etc., are probably reasonably good predictors. Presidential popularity isn't anti-inductive like a market.